365 days Terror in Israel and Gaza. Hamas, Hisbollah and Huthi Rebels attack
western values and the freedom of the seas.
Initially driving up freight rates, especially in the Container trades. Now, after the peak season in Container Trades (Christmas Stocking) is finished the market is losing momentum.
Bulk was mildly strong though out the first 3 quarters and should have potential to improve in the winter season leading up to Chinese New Year (29.1.2025).
Tanker markets faced strong demand and MPP markets are seeing rising demand from the Offshore and Wind industry. Freight rates are pushed upwards.
Elections in the USA in November will bring more clarity which system will rule in the USA.
Hopefully the more balanced Kamal Harris economical approach. Other pending issues,like the Russian aggressions (disturbing trade in the Black Sea amongst others) and the middle east crisis, including the danger to pass the Red Sea (Suez Canal), may take longer to pan out.
Challenging times in China influence the world trade. Economical fights with Australia and the United States of America are discouraging the Chinese economy.
The high unemployment rate of young school and university graduates creates a huge problem.
The rising costs of living in China coupled with the real estate crisis are a real inner political threat to the status quo. There are signs that China is having a Foreign Currency problem and is blocking activities that further drains the cash reserves of the country. Top currency generators like Hong Kong are not working as before the Umbrella Revolution. They still suffer from Chinese reeducation and the exit of most foreign companies and employees. The huge trade with Russia is laregley based on barter systems and does not generate foreign currency. This will be a topic to watch carefully.
Europe has an Opinion Crisis. Everybody has an opinion, but no one gets the pressing jobs done.
Political election in France, Austria and parts of Germany show the weakness of the governments.
More people elect right wing parties, and the governments are in a dilemma to stay in charge.
Too much talk and too little efforts are put into change management. European countries are self-occupied and are unable to solve any pending issues or take world political actions.
Russia has isolated itself after invading Crimea and later attacking the Ukraine.
The Russian fleet is ageing with no significant newbuilding programs in place.
Only Turkey is supplying them with new tonnage.
India is making its second debut as a shipbuilding nation. In a relative short time span they managed to book all major shipyards with contracts. The Indian government has high hopes to become one of the leading shipbuilding nations. A welcome entry for shipowners who dislike building their assets in China.
The shipbuilding market is roaring at full speed. The order book is full, and prices are high.
Less shipyards are competing for orders than 10 years ago.
There is a trend of Mega Shipyard Groups and China is facing less competition, cementing them as world number 1 in shipbuilding for more than 5 years already.
What is remarkable to note, is that the latest newbuilding reports show an order placed in China by a Taiwanese Company. Ta-Ho Maritime, Taiwan, are reported to have ordered 2 x 63,500 DWT cement carriers at Jiangsu Haitong, China, scheduled for delivery in 2026 and priced in the region of USD 33-34 mill each. Seems political such order is no problem and Taiwanese are confident to build in (PR) China.
Also J.T. Essberger, Hamburg, are reported to have signed a contract for 6 x 13,000 DWT chemical tankers at Nantong Rainbow Offshore, China (2 firm with options for 4). This is their second order in China in less than 6 months and a clear sign of confidence in the market and in China.
Schoeller Holdings, Cyprus are back and entered a new market with ordering
4 x Construction Service Operation Vessels at CSSC Huangpu Wenchong, China with delivery scheduled to take place from early 2027.
Finally, Spliethoff, Netherlands, returned to China and is reported to have signed contracts for up to 10 x 28,600 DWT MPP vessels at Wuhu Shipyard, China which will be delivered from Q1 2028.
A sign that China is presently the place to build MPP ships.
In the smaller ranges China has over 100 units on order and is the number one market leader for Coasters and MPP vessels. Indonesia (KTU) and India (5 shipyards) are the only real competitors along with the Dutch shipyards, who traditionally build plenty of 3,000-6,000 tonners following the maximum
sizes the shipyards can accommodate and the Dutch incentive schemes do support.
It is a shame to see what is happening to German shipbuilding industry.
Meyer Werft is now hiding under Government Umbrella, FSG and Nobiskrug are close to bankruptcy, the Mecklenburger Shipyards have basically no presence in the newbuilding market any longer.
The Lürssen Group and the Rönner Group are still operating successfully, but whether the German shipbuilding industry will survive remains to be seen. I do hope so.
Any comments, questions or opinion are very welcome.
Your feedback is highly appreciated.

Comments